Pentagon Warns of China's Growing Arsenal: Over 100 ICBMs Loaded

According to a new draft report from the Pentagon, China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in its latest silo fields, signaling a significant escalation in its nuclear power. The report emphasizes that China appears disinterested in engaging in arms control discussions, which raises alarms among experts regarding increasing military tensions within the Asia-Pacific region.

The Pentagon details that China has installed solid-fueled DF-31 missiles across three silo locations near its Mongolia border. Though the Pentagon previously recognized these sites, the exact count of missiles was only clarified recently. U.S. officials caution that this draft might still undergo changes prior to being submitted to lawmakers.

Furthermore, the document sheds light on China’s larger military objectives. It notes that Beijing likely aims to prevail in a conflict over Taiwan by late 2027. This encompasses potential military operations extending 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles from the Chinese coastline, potentially jeopardizing the U.S. military’s posture in the area.

Currently, China’s nuclear warhead inventory is estimated to be around 600 as of 2024, reflecting a slower production than in recent years. Nonetheless, the Pentagon anticipates that this number could surpass 1,000 by the year 2030. China asserts that its nuclear strategy remains defensive, adhering to a policy of no-first-use, signifying it would deploy nuclear arms strictly in retaliation.

This report arrives concurrently with discussions regarding the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the final U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control agreement. Experts caution that the treaty's lapse may intensify a nuclear arms race involving China, Russia, and the United States. Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, stated, "The presence of more nuclear weapons without diplomatic efforts won’t enhance safety for any party, whether China, Russia, or the United States."

In response to the Pentagon's assertions, China refutes claims of a military escalation, terming these reports as efforts to “slander and malign” the nation. A representative from the Chinese embassy in Washington reiterated that the country operates a defensive strategy, maintaining its nuclear capabilities at the minimal level necessary for its security.

The report also highlights recent changes within China's military framework. President Xi Jinping has spearheaded an extensive anti-corruption initiative aimed at the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the broader defense sector. Although this crackdown may influence short-term operational readiness, the Pentagon believes it could ultimately enhance the efficiency of the PLA. Over the past year and a half, at least 26 senior figures in state-owned arms firms have been investigated or dismissed from their posts, particularly within the nuclear and naval shipbuilding industries.

As concerns escalate regarding China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and its relationship with the United States—especially regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea, and various regional matters—experts underscore the necessity of careful diplomatic engagement to avert miscommunications and mitigate nuclear standoff risks. The forthcoming years will be pivotal in shaping how China, the U.S., and other nuclear nations oversee their arsenals and partake in arms control dialogues.