Putin’s Trip to India Focuses on Strengthening Defence and Energy Collaborations

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit India on Thursday for a two-day engagement aimed at redefining the intricate relationship between New Delhi and Moscow. In the face of escalating global tensions, shifting trade routes, and pressure from dominant nations, this visit carries significant implications for both nations. Putin’s primary objective is to encourage India to persist in purchasing Russian oil and to rekindle interest in Russian military assets like missile technologies and fighter aircraft.

Over the decades, India has relied heavily on Russian defence technology, with a considerable percentage of its jets, missiles, and military apparatus coming from Russia. In the aftermath of the 2022 Ukraine invasion, India emerged as the largest consumer of Russia’s seaborne oil. However, recent trends indicate a decrease in Indian imports of Russian crude, projected to hit a three-year low due to tightening sanctions, coupled with Indian refiners increasingly sourcing oil from the United States. This backdrop is prompting Putin to arrive with a large entourage, including the defence minister and heads of key Russian oil and banking sectors.

For India, the significance of this visit is palpable yet precarious. While New Delhi is eager to maintain its longstanding ties with Moscow, it remains wary that any substantial agreement might provoke a negative response from U.S. President Donald Trump, who earlier escalated tariffs on Indian imports due to India's ongoing Russian oil purchases. Such developments have led to heightened caution among Indian officials as they navigate the summit preparations. Nevertheless, dialogues have been extensive, touching on various domains including defence, shipping, agriculture, and nuclear collaboration. Additionally, India and Russia are expected to commence discussions regarding a possible free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union.

During the negotiations, Russia may seek India’s assistance in acquiring spare parts and technical resources for its oil sector, which has been hindered by Western sanctions. In return, India may advocate strongly for the restoration of a 20% stake in the Sakhalin-1 project that ONGC Videsh holds, which has been jeopardized since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, as India aims to secure its long-term energy goals. Concurrently, increasing discounts on Russian oil have started drawing Indian state refiners back into the fold, with Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum already placing new orders for the upcoming months.

Despite challenges in energy cooperation, defence relations remain robust. Indian forces continue to heavily rely on Russian systems for air and missile defence capabilities, with the Sukhoi-30 jets forming a critical component of India’s air fleet. Russia is also proposing the advanced Su-57 fighter jet, although India has not made a final decision on that matter. Another critical point of discussion anticipated in the talks is the S-400 air defence system, with India currently operating three units and awaiting delivery of two more under an existing agreement.

Analysts suggest that ongoing dialogues between the U.S. and Russia concerning the Ukraine situation might provide India a slight edge to more openly engage with Moscow, though the delicate circumstances persist. A significant portion of India-Russia trade has historically centered around energy, an area currently facing substantial hurdles due to U.S. sanctions. Defence ties, however, continue to provide a strong foundation for bilateral relations and remain a unifying factor.

Putin’s visit arrives at a critical juncture as India endeavors to navigate its role among influential global adversaries: on one side, Russia, a faithful ally in military matters, and on the other, the U.S., a pivotal economic partner increasingly restrictive about India’s relations with Moscow. This visit will test India’s adeptness in balancing these relationships while safeguarding its national interests. The following two days will reveal if New Delhi and Moscow can revamp their partnership in response to contemporary challenges, or if external pressures will inhibit mutual progress.