Novartis Targets $10 Billion with Kisqali, Eyes Future Growth to 2030

Swiss pharmaceutical leader Novartis has outlined its growth ambitions for the next decade, anticipating annual revenue growth of 5% to 6% (currency-adjusted) through 2030. This optimistic forecast stems from the unexpected performance of its oncology treatments, Kisqali and Scemblix, both expected to surpass earlier sales expectations.

Oncology Medications Fueling Growth

Kisqali, focused on breast cancer, is projected to hit peak sales of at least $10 billion, improving from an earlier estimate of $8 billion. In addition, Scemblix is now estimated to achieve peak sales of at least $4 billion, up from $3 billion. In the first nine months of 2025, these two medications collectively brought in $4.4 billion, highlighting their pivotal role in Novartis’ portfolio. Analysts believe there’s significant potential for further upward revisions.

Novartis has also shortlisted eight promising drugs with peak sales potential ranging from $3 billion to $10 billion, indicating a robust revenue pipeline for the mid- to long-term.

Acquisitions and Strategic Investments

In light of impending patent expirations for major products such as Entresto (used for heart conditions) and Xolair (asthma treatment), Novartis has allocated $30 billion this year for acquisitions and licensing ventures. A significant highlight is the $12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences, which is expected to strengthen its pipeline with treatments for muscle disorders and enhance annual growth estimates to 6% for 2024–2029.

Operational and Margin Goals

The company is aiming for a core operating income margin of at least 40% by 2029, accounting for a slight 1–2 percentage point impact from the Avidity acquisition, expected to close in the first half of 2026. For context, Novartis reported a margin of 41.2% during the first nine months of 2025. Although third-quarter earnings generally met expectations, margins fell short, as increasing sales from newer drugs could not completely offset concerns about stagnating older medications.

Future Outlook and Prospects

The ongoing success of forthcoming experimental therapies, including the newly approved skin disease treatment Rhapsido, will be critical for Novartis to maintain its growth momentum post-2030. Additionally, projections indicate that Kisqali’s pricing strategy in the U.S. under the Inflation Reduction Act, set to take effect in 2027, will have a limited impact in its first year.

With a strong pipeline, strategic acquisitions, and promising therapies on the rise, Novartis is positioning itself for sustained growth despite the challenges of patent expirations and pricing pressures.