WTO Raises 2026 Global Goods Trade Growth Forecast to 3.9%

WTO Raises Global Merchandise Trade Growth Forecast for 2026

Geneva, October 8, 2026: The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, up from its previous estimate of 1.9%. According to the WTO’s latest World Trade Outlook and Statistics report, the improved outlook reflects the ability of global supply chains to adapt to disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis and strong investment in artificial intelligence technologies.

Global Goods Trade Grew by 3.5% in the First Half of 2026

The WTO reported that the volume of global merchandise trade increased by 3.5% during the first half of 2026. This growth came despite disruptions affecting energy, fertiliser and transport markets. The organisation expects global merchandise trade growth to reach 4.1% in 2027, indicating continued expansion if the forecast conditions hold.

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Artificial Intelligence Goods Support Global Trade

Demand for products linked to artificial intelligence has played a major role in supporting international goods trade. The WTO said semiconductors, servers and other AI-related goods accounted for 47% of the growth in global merchandise trade during the first half of 2026. Trade in these products increased by 67% year on year, exceeding the strong growth rates recorded in 2024 and 2025.

Supply Chains Adapt to Middle East Disruptions

The WTO noted that global supply chains have adjusted to disruptions in energy, fertiliser and transport markets. According to the report, crude oil exports from the Middle East declined by about 24%, while liquefied natural gas exports fell by 47%. Increased shipments from alternative suppliers helped limit the impact on overall global exports.

Shipping and Fertiliser Markets Show Resilience

Global container handling activity increased by 3.9% from the beginning of 2026 through July, according to the WTO report. Fertiliser markets also adapted to supply disruptions by turning to alternative suppliers. These developments helped maintain the movement of goods despite pressure on key international supply routes and commodity markets.

WTO Lowers Forecast for Commercial Services Trade

While the outlook for merchandise trade improved, the WTO reduced its forecast for commercial services trade growth in 2026 to 3.3%, down from 4.8% projected in March. The organisation expects growth to recover to 6.4% in 2027. The revised outlook reflects the impact of Middle East tensions on transport and travel services, along with higher shipping costs.

Asia Leads the Regional Goods Export Outlook

The report highlighted differences in expected export growth across regions. Asia is forecast to record the fastest merchandise export growth in 2026 at 9.9%, followed by North America at 5.7%. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stressed the importance of an integrated global economy and a rules-based trading system in helping businesses and consumers maintain access to essential goods during periods of disruption.

The WTO’s revised forecast points to the growing role of technology-related demand and flexible supply chains in global trade. However, the outlook remains sensitive to regional tensions, transport costs and developments in major energy and commodity markets.