Experts Warn Bird Flu Mutation Could Spark Severe Pandemic

Health experts in France are warning that the ongoing bird flu outbreak could turn into a pandemic even more serious than COVID-19 if the virus changes enough to spread easily from one person to another. The concern was raised by Marie-Anne Rameix-Welti, the medical director of the respiratory infections centre at Institut Pasteur in Paris.

The bird flu virus, officially called highly pathogenic avian influenza, has been spreading among wild birds, poultry, and some mammals for the past several years. This has forced farmers to destroy hundreds of millions of birds, which has disrupted food supplies and pushed up the prices of eggs and poultry products around the world. Although human infections remain very rare, scientists say the situation must be watched closely.

Rameix-Welti explained that the main fear is that the virus could adapt to mammals and then to humans. If it becomes capable of spreading from human to human, it could create a global health crisis. She said such a virus “would be a pandemic virus” and could potentially be more severe than what the world experienced with COVID-19.

The Institut Pasteur played a major role during the coronavirus pandemic. It was one of the first European laboratories to develop and share COVID-19 testing systems, helping countries and organisations around the world detect the virus quickly.

People have some immunity against normal seasonal flu strains like H1 and H3, but they have no antibodies against the H5 strain currently infecting birds and some mammals. This lack of immunity is similar to the early days of COVID-19 when humans had no natural protection against the virus. According to Rameix-Welti, flu viruses are dangerous not only for vulnerable groups but can also kill healthy adults and even children. This is why many health experts are worried that a mutated bird flu virus could cause severe illness in large numbers of people.

There have already been human infections caused by various H5 bird flu strains, including the H5N1 type now circulating among poultry and dairy cows in the United States. Most of these infections have occurred in people who were in close contact with infected animals. Recently, the first-ever human case of the H5N5 strain was detected in the U.S. state of Washington. The infected man, who already had health problems, died last week.

Data from the World Health Organization (WHO) shows that nearly 1,000 human cases of bird flu were recorded globally between 2003 and 2025, mostly in Egypt, Indonesia, and Vietnam. About 48% of those infected died, indicating how dangerous the virus can be.

Despite these worrying numbers, the overall risk of a human pandemic remains low. Gregorio Torres, head of science at the World Organisation for Animal Health, said people should not panic. He explained that while a pandemic is possible, the chances are still very low. “You can happily walk in the forest, eat chicken and eggs, and enjoy your life,” he said. The key, he added, is to stay prepared and monitor the situation closely.

Rameix-Welti also pointed out that if bird flu does mutate to spread among humans, the world is in a stronger position than before the COVID-19 crisis. For example, scientists already have vaccine candidates, and they know how to produce vaccines rapidly. There are also specific antivirals that could work against avian influenza. These tools would help limit the impact if human-to-human spread ever begins.

While the situation is serious, experts say it is not one that requires alarm. Instead, countries must continue surveillance, support early detection, and strengthen response plans. Issues like virus mutation, pandemic planning, public health safety, global surveillance, and avian influenza remain essential topics for governments and health organisations.

For now, people can continue their daily lives normally, but scientists emphasise that careful monitoring and global cooperation are crucial to prevent a future crisis.