OPEC+ Split Over November Oil Production Increase Amidst Diminishing Global Demand

Global Energy Update | October 5, 2025

As OPEC+ prepares to evaluate a possible increase in oil production for November, the growing discord between Saudi Arabia and Russia highlights the complex dynamics within the energy sector. As consumption patterns change, particularly in Asia, key oil producers are confronted with tough choices.

Confronting the November Challenge

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries alongside its partners (OPEC+) enters a critical week for negotiations.
Members are considering the magnitude of an oil output rise beginning November 2025 — a decision that could greatly influence global fuel prices as the year draws to a close.

Insiders in the negotiations reveal that Saudi Arabia is pushing for a substantial increase of up to 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) to enhance its market status, while Russia advocates for a more cautious rise of about 140,000 bpd, citing concerns over the fragile nature of global demand.

“The primary challenge lies in finding a balance between revenue objectives and price stability,” stated a delegate involved in the talks. “Excessive output could trigger another market downturn.”

Economic Overview

Currently, oil prices are fluctuating between $82 and $85 a barrel, indicating a stable yet precarious situation.
A decline in industrial activities across China and Europe, along with decreased fuel consumption in Western nations, has prompted OPEC+ to tread carefully.

Analysts warn that a significant increase in production could drive Brent crude prices below $80, especially if global growth declines in Q4.

Saudi Arabia’s Market Aspirations

Following years of deliberate production cuts, Saudi Arabia intends to recover its market share from prior reductions.
Sources suggest that Riyadh’s priorities include:

• Enhancing supply relationships with Asian refineries, especially in India and China.

• Strengthening its competitive stance against U.S. shale producers.

• Advancing domestic economic diversification through the Vision 2030 initiative.

Industry experts believe that the kingdom is keen to bolster its influence in global oil markets, suggesting optimism around price stability even with increased supply.

Russia’s Conservative Position

Facing ongoing sanctions and export hurdles, Russia is exercising caution.
Officials caution that an oversupply could endanger fiscal stability and undermine recent price improvements.
With production nearing maximum capacity, Moscow favors market stability over sheer volume growth.

“Russia’s perspective is pragmatic — considerable price drops are detrimental to all parties involved,” noted an energy market analyst.

Impact on the Global Market

Raising OPEC+ output might:

• Provide temporary relief to importing countries like India and those in Southeast Asia.

• Put pressure on non-OPEC producers, specifically U.S. shale exporters.

• Potentially trigger short-term declines in global crude prices if demand fails to recover.

On the other hand, a moderate increase would:

• Maintain Brent prices firmly above $85.

• Safeguard producer revenues.

• Ensure supply discipline until clearer demand patterns emerge.

Decision Timeline

The upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled for Sunday, 1100 GMT, with output decisions anticipated shortly afterward.
Sources predict a compromise output target of 275,000–300,000 bpd — sufficient to demonstrate solidarity while preventing price shocks.

Markets in Asia, Europe, and North America are poised for immediate reactions post-announcement, given the heightened sensitivity of crude benchmarks to supply changes.

Asia's Crucial Role

Asia constitutes nearly 70% of the new global oil demand growth.
Economists observe that OPEC+ decisions will swiftly impact Asian economies — affecting inflation, transport costs, and overall fiscal stability.

“For Asian consumers, every shift from OPEC+ resonates — influencing fuel prices to logistics expenses,” remarked an independent analyst.

Finding a Balance: Stability vs. Growth

The forthcoming decision will test the organization’s unity and long-term vision.
If Saudi Arabia’s expansionist agenda prevails, oil markets may initially see an oversupply followed by an anticipated rebound in 2026.
Conversely, if Russia’s cautious strategy prevails, stability could be restored at the potential expense of growth ambitions.

Regardless of the result, OPEC+ remains a powerful player in global energy dynamics, and its impending decision could profoundly influence market trends in the upcoming months.