Post by : Raina
Al-Fahim
The recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to New Delhi has stirred new conversations in Washington about India's strengthening ties with Moscow in the context of evolving global dynamics. Michael Kugelman, Senior Fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, mentioned to NDTV that while India showcased the visit through strong optics and extensive agreements, it has prompted worries within the US administration regarding the trajectory of India-Russia relations.
At the summit, a comprehensive joint statement was issued, along with a recommitment to commercial and military partnerships. This development is likely to be perceived in Washington as India reinforcing Russia, particularly at a time when the US is focused on reinvigorating peace discussions in Ukraine. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi's parallel outreach to Kyiv and emphasis on the notion that “this is not an era of war,” Kugelman suggests that the visit reflects the limits of India's strategic independence in a world that is increasingly polarized.
The timing of the visit has also contributed to the unease. The postponement of the Quad summit, delays in former President Donald Trump's visit to India, and ongoing US sanctions against Moscow complicate the situation. India's choice to cut down Russian oil imports just before Putin's arrival highlights the balancing act New Delhi must perform to meet the expectations of both Russia and the West.
While a new gas agreement with the US may alleviate some concerns, Kugelman signaled that Washington might still seek further concessions. Trade tension remains a pressing issue, as India prepares for possible repercussions from US tariffs and the mixed signals about Trump's perspective on India's economy and ties with Modi. Historically, countries seeking tariff concessions from Trump have had to make notable sacrifices, complicating India's diplomatic maneuvering.
Kugelman pointed to the potential stabilizing role of Sergio Gor, the new US ambassador to India and a close Trump confidant who advocates for robust India-US relations. He also noted the difference between the hardline rhetoric coming from the White House and the more cooperative stances taken by the US State Department, Defense Department, and Congress, stressing that bipartisan support for India remains intact despite recent tensions.
Discussing security in South Asia, Kugelman reviewed the recent conflict between India and Pakistan and the precarious ceasefire. He cautioned that India's defined boundaries, especially regarding terror attacks backed by Pakistan being viewed as acts of war, could lead to renewed confrontations under specific provocations. While the Pakistani military and civilian leadership received public backing during the conflict, the controversial constitutional amendments and Army Chief Asim Munir's recent promotion to field marshal might destabilize the nation’s internal and external posture.
Kugelman also talked about China's growing influence in the region and its implications for both India and the US. He mentioned that the Trump administration's approach toward China remains unclear, with a mix of aggressive rhetoric and practical restraint likely to define future relations. Economic rivalry with Beijing is anticipated to persist, though Washington is expected to avoid actions that could trigger retaliation from China, potentially altering Indo-Pacific dynamics and complicating India's strategic considerations.
Despite these challenges, Kugelman voiced cautious optimism regarding India-US relations. Both nations have a vested interest in sustaining a strong partnership and continuing high-level dialogues. “It’s a challenging moment, but it’s not a breaking point,” he remarked. “There’s a sincere interest in Washington to revive this relationship; it’s merely a question of timing.”
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